Key Outcomes of the Monetary Policy Committee, 19 March 2026
- The Bank of England has maintained the base rate at 3.75%.
- The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the Bank is prepared to act on interest rates if required to manage inflation pressures related to the ongoing Middle East conflict:
- “The Committee will continue to monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and its impact on global energy supply and energy prices. It stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.” Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee, March 2026
- According to Moneyfacts, major lenders have withdrawn sub-4% fixed-rate mortgage deals that were available as recently as last week.
- The average two-year fixed mortgage rate has increased from 4.84% at the beginning of March to 5.32%. Likewise, the typical five-year fixed rate has risen from 4.96% to 5.37% in the same period. (Moneyfacts).
- The mortgage market has experienced a notable reduction in available products, with 689 fewer options reported on Tuesday compared to 9 March, according to Moneyfacts (19 March 2026).
- The Consumer Price Index inflation was 3% in the year to January, based on the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.
What next for mortgage deals?
The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) latest meeting minutes reflect a more decisive stance than many anticipated, with the decision to keep interest rates steady made prior to recent disruptions in gas infrastructure. As a result, the market is now responding to both the Bank of England’s cautious messaging and a more complex geopolitical backdrop than policymakers had originally considered.
While the long-term outlook for the base rate still suggests a gradual decline, the journey will be shaped by ongoing global uncertainties. With rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, money markets are now anticipating the possibility of an interest rate increase rather than a cut this year.
If the current spike in energy prices proves temporary and inflation continues to ease (with inflation at 3% and the Chancellor’s Fiscal Rules targeting 2%), the potential for rate cuts later this year remains. The Bank will be mindful not to maintain a restrictive policy if there are signs of economic or employment weakness.
However, if energy prices remain elevated or inflation expectations increase, interest rates may stay higher for longer than initially projected.
Given the current environment of elevated inflation and rising energy costs, it is likely that mortgage rates will experience further short-term volatility, alongside a reduction in available mortgage products.
For homebuyers and current homeowners, the key message is to remain calm and informed. Take the time to understand your options by consulting with an experienced mortgage broker like Cleerly, who can guide you through this fast-moving market and help you make decisions with confidence, rather than feeling pressured to act quickly.
If you’re approaching the end of your fixed deal in the next three to six months, it remains a prudent strategy to secure a new rate early and keep your options under review. This approach helps protect you from potential increases in pricing while still leaving room to switch to a better deal before completion, should rates improve.
If your current mortgage deal is ending soon...
If your current mortgage deal is ending soon, it’s advisable to speak with a mortgage broker now to review your options and secure a solution that fits your needs. Taking early action with expert guidance ensures you are well-prepared and able to move forward with confidence, no matter how the market evolves.
Securing a rate today can help protect you from the risk of future rate increases before your new deal is finalised.
Should rates decrease, you usually have the flexibility to reapply for a more favourable offer, providing added peace of mind. Most mortgage offers remain valid for three to six months, provided your circumstances stay the same, and you are not committed until you formally accept.
Even if your remortgage is not yet due, it can be wise to review your options in advance. While early repayment charges may apply, the potential savings from securing a new deal could outweigh these costs—especially if a rate increase raises your monthly payments or if you plan to release funds for home improvements. Carefully assessing your circumstances with expert guidance ensures that any decision you make is in your best financial interest.
Obligation-Free Mortgage Advice from Cleerly
In today's unpredictable mortgage market, waiting too long can pose risks to your financial security. Although it’s impossible to predict every rate movement, making informed decisions now can help you stay in control and protect your long-term interests.
Whether you're a first-time buyer, planning to move, or looking to remortgage, seeking prompt, professional advice from a trusted, whole-of-market broker like Cleerly is essential for safeguarding your financial future.
Our expert mortgage team is dedicated to offering clear, personalised guidance to ensure you secure the mortgage solution that best fits your financial circumstances. Your wellbeing and peace of mind is our highest priority. Don’t leave your financial future to chance, contact Cleerly today for experienced, trustworthy advice and explore your mortgage options with confidence.